This article was written by Molly Paxton an Economics student at the University of Warwick.
Flash flooding in Europe, causing widespread damage and fatalities, coupled with global heatwaves, drought, wildfires and typhoons should serve as a reminder to prioritise our international environmental commitments (1). In Spain, the severity of the recent floods prompted prime minister Pedro Sanchez to order the country’s largest peacetime military deployment of 10,000 troops and police officers (2) to aid with recovery and rehabilitation efforts. The scale of this tragedy and long-term damage to communities in central and southern Spain, especially the region of Valencia, exaggerate the extent of the crisis we face. However, in a year of global elections and turmoil, commitment to environmental progress has been sidelined, in the media and in manifestos.
As all eyes turn to the COP29 Summit, hosted by Azerbaijan, global commitment to new climate targets is as urgent as ever. The Paris Agreement, adopted by 196 countries at COP21 in 2015 aimed to “hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial efforts, and pursue efforts to achieve less than 1.5°C” (3). However, global greenhouse gas concentrations have continued to rise, with 2024 on track to be the hottest year on record. The World Meteorological Organization, in their 2024 ‘State of the Climate’ report, demonstrates that in a period from January to September this year, global temperatures averaged 1.54°C above the pre-industrial average, surpassing the target set in 2015 (4). With the Paris Agreement nearing its 10th anniversary, and its goals looking ever more unlikely, is COP’s main target already out of reach?
While British PM Sir Keir Starmer took the opportunity to announce the UK’s commitment to cut carbon emissions by 81% by 2035 (as compared to 1990 levels) (5), the summit has been plagued with setbacks, not least the absence of American and German leadership. The election of self-pronounced climate sceptic Donald Trump has cast a shadow over any illusions of progress. Having called climate change “a big hoax” and pledging to reverse the progress achieved by Biden, Trump’s mandate is at odds with the core climate recommendations made by the United Nations (6). Comments made by host Azerbaijan’s president, that natural gas was a “gift from God”, has further undermined the urgent need for a transition to cleaner energy solutions (7), and contradicts some of the main discussion points taking place at this year’s summit.
The summit ran into more issues when Argentinian president Javier Milei ordered the nation’s delegates to leave on the third day of discussions, leading to fears of Argentina’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. The move is likely inspired by Trump’s campaign commitment to once again withdraw the US from the agreement when he takes office in January, having met in Mar-a-Lago earlier this week (8). Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement will require the approval of the Argentinian parliament, due to the framework being ratified in the constitution in 2016 which could temporarily stall this decision. Many in Argentina may see Milei’s actions as leading to reduced influence over key global issues, with UN Climate Change researcher Ana Mulio Alvarez believing that “Argentina’s decision to leave COP29 is a step back for its own climate resilience” (9).
Recently appointed UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband remains optimistic for the future of green energy, “no one government or one country can stop this transition happening, people can see the economic advantages”. Having led negotiations on behalf of the UK at COP29, Miliband has focused his attention on providing climate finance to developing countries, to aid low-carbon development strategies and says that helping countries vulnerable to the effects of climate change “is from every point of view the right thing to do” (10). The Autumn Budget also provided some details of Labour’s environmental plans, with support provided for the rollout of electric vehicles, £3.9bn pledged for carbon capture and storage in 2025-26, and a further increase in the windfall tax on oil and gas companies operating in the North Sea (11).
Despite setbacks at COP29 and growing global political uncertainty, there are still many indications of hope for green progress. Labour’s prioritisation of investment in green energy has the potential to catalyse action on the world stage and encourage other countries to follow suit. With growing backlash to green progress and a lack of commitment from world leaders, questions remain about the effectiveness of COP summits in the future.
The views and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the Warwick Economics Summit.
References:
1) United Nations, “State of the Climate 2024: Update for COP29”, World Meteorological Association, 11 November 2024, https://library.wmo.int/viewer/69075/download?file=State-Climate-2024-Update-COP29_en.pdf&type=pdf&navigator=1 (Accessed 19 November 2024)
2) BBC “Spain’s PM orders 10,000 troops and police to flood-hit Valencia”, Mark Lowen, 2 November 2024, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ced9l7799w9o (Accessed 18 November 2024)
3) United Nations, “The Paris Agreement”, UN, https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement (Accessed 18 November 2024)
4) United Nations, “State of the Climate 2024: Update for COP29”, World Meteorological Association, 11 November 2024, https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/reports (Accessed 19 November 2024)
5) The Guardian, “Keir Starmer to unveil ambitious new UK climate goal at COP29”, Fiona Harvey, 11 November 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/11/keir-starmer-to-unveil-ambitious-new-uk-climate-goal-cop29-ndc (Accessed 16 November 2024)
6) The Guardian, “Experts warm Trump’s win sets back global climate action”, Oliver Milman, 6 November 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/06/trump-climate-change-environment-threat (Accessed 19 November 2024)
7) BBC “Oil and gas are a ‘gift of God’ says COP29 host”, Georgina Rannard, 12 November 2024, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpqd1rzw9r4o (Accessed 17 November 2024)
8) CNN, “Argentina withdraws delegates from climate summit as Milei heads for Mar-a-Lago”, Betiana Martino, 13 November 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/13/americas/cop29-argentina-withdraws-milei-intl-latam/index.html (Accessed 19 November 2024)
9) Bloomberg, “Milei’s COP29 Team Leaves as Trump Tensions Hang Over Summit”, John Ainger, 14 November 2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-14/milei-s-walkout-from-cop29-adds-to-trump-tension-over-summit (Accessed 19 November 2024)
10) The Guardian, “Move towards renewable energy is unstoppable, says Ed Miliband”, Fiona Harvey, 15 November 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/15/renewable-energy-unstoppable-ed-miliband (Accessed 19 November 2024)
11) The Carbon Brief, “UK autumn budget 2024: Key climate and energy announcements”, Molly Lempriere, 30 October 2024, https://www.carbonbrief.org/uk-autumn-budget-2024-key-climate-and-energy-announcements/ (Accessed 15 November 2024)
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